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The School of Numbers & Logic · Probability & Statistics

Statistics: From Data to Decisions

Study design, sampling, and inference — the full route from a question to a defensible conclusion, potholes marked. · QA 276.12 · ~36 h

FolioUnit I — Describing One Variable
fol. 1 Four Kinds of Data

A variable is either categorical or quantitative, and its level of measurement decides which summaries are even allowed on it.

11 min
fol. 2 Where the Middle Sits

Mean, median, and mode each name a different notion of a typical value, and a skewed distribution is exactly what makes them disagree.

12 min
fol. 3 How Far Things Spread

Range, interquartile range, and standard deviation measure how far data sits from its center, and they differ chiefly in how much an outlier can move them.

12 min
fol. 4 The Shape of a Distribution

A histogram or boxplot reveals whether a distribution is symmetric, skewed, or multi-peaked, and that shape decides which measure of center you can trust.

12 min
FolioUnit II — The Normal Curve
fol. 5 The Bell and Its Rule

The normal curve is a symmetric, single-peaked distribution whose 68–95–99.7 rule fixes what fraction of data falls within one, two, and three standard deviations of the mean.

11 min
fol. 6 One Ruler for Every Scale

A z-score restates a value as the number of standard deviations it lies from its mean, letting you compare measurements taken on completely different scales.

11 min
FolioUnit III — From Sample to Population
fol. 7 Who Got Asked

A sample can only speak for its population when it is chosen without bias, and random selection is the one dependable defense against that bias.

11 min
fol. 8 The Same Question, Many Samples

A statistic like the sample mean changes from one sample to the next, and that predictable spread of estimates is measured by the standard error.

12 min
fol. 9 How Sure, Give or Take

A confidence interval reports an estimate plus a margin of error, and the confidence level states how often intervals built this way capture the true value.

12 min
FolioUnit IV — Two Variables at Once
fol. 10 Points on a Field

A scatterplot shows two measurements per subject at once, exposing the direction, form, and strength of any relationship between the variables.

12 min
fol. 11 Measuring the Lean

The correlation coefficient r condenses the direction and tightness of a linear relationship into a single number between minus one and one.

13 min
fol. 12 The Line of Best Fit

A regression line summarizes a scatter with one equation you can predict from, but only within the range the data actually covers.

14 min
fol. 13 Correlation Is Not a Cause

Two variables can move together because one drives the other, because the second drives the first, or because a lurking third variable moves both — and correlation alone cannot say which.

12 min
FolioUnit V — Reading Claims Critically
fol. 14 How a Chart Misleads

A chart can distort honest data by truncating the axis, stretching or compressing a scale, or cherry-picking the window of time it shows.

12 min
fol. 15 Reading a Study

Whether a study may claim that one thing causes another depends on whether it merely observed the world or actively assigned a treatment, and on which competing explanations it ruled out.

13 min
fol. 16 From Data to Decision

Before a conclusion is allowed to drive a decision, it must pass a fixed checklist covering how the data was collected, how it was summarized, and how it was displayed.

13 min

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